【新唐人2011年8月18日訊】中共總書記胡錦濤近日考察深圳、廣州等地，力挺團派的廣東省委書記汪洋。8月16號，團派的李克強副總理破格訪問香港，港臺媒體認為，李克強此行確立了接任總理的地位。海內外專家指出，江澤民死訊傳出後發生的一系列事件，已使江派遭到重挫。
新華社16號報導，李克強「視察香港特別行政區」。香港《蘋果日報》表示，李克強訪港被稱為「視察」，是極為破格的說法。
英國BBC的分析指出，李克強破格訪港在於替李克強「增加分數」。也有分析認為，李克強此行是為了壯大團派佔上風的聲威。
香港《開放》雜誌去年曾發表題為《王歧山權壓李克強》的文章。江澤民一手提拔起來的太子黨王岐山，曾被認為是競爭下屆總理的一匹黑馬。
林和立(香港時事評論員)：「李克強副總理這次訪問香港，更加明確了中共的安排，李克強假如沒有甚麼意外，在十八大以後應該會接任國務院總理。」
台灣《中央社》16號援引消息人士的話表示，李克強接任總理的問題早已解決，也是因為這樣，李克強才能訪港。因此，根本不存在外界所說的透過香港來確立他接任地位的問題。
香港《動向》雜誌去年援引來自北京高層的可靠消息說：李克強已經放棄了總書記職務的競爭，轉而提前進入總理角色。汪洋成為團派推出的第二號總書記人選。
8月11號到15號，胡錦濤在深圳出席世界大學生運動會開幕式前後，由汪洋陪同，到深圳、廣州等地高調考察。
林和立：「汪洋一般人理解他是所謂共青團派一個主要人物，尤其是國家主席胡錦濤今年來過廣東三次，所以很明顯胡錦濤支持汪洋進政治局常委。」
《法國國際廣播電臺》報導，香港時事評論員林和立表示，除了汪洋，團派的組織部長李源潮也會在十八大晉身政治局常委。至於重慶市委書記薄熙來則行情看淡。
朱健國(深圳獨立作家)：「從胡錦濤這次過來看，北戴河的會議大政方針已經議定了，而且基本上是有利於胡錦濤的，否則胡錦濤不會這次來這麼放手的離開北京，到底下來佈局，力舉汪洋和李克強整個動作。」
掀起「唱紅打黑」以圖進入中南海的薄熙來，則受到胡溫的冷遇。自2007年底薄熙來主政重慶以來，在九名政治局常委中，唯獨胡錦濤至今沒有去過重慶視察。
在中共建黨90週年過後，接連發生了江澤民死訊的傳播、遠華走私大案主犯賴昌星被引渡回國、溫州動車追撞慘劇、大連PX化工廠潰堤洩露，引發中共高層大震動。
伍凡(《中國事務》主編)：「北戴河開會的時候正好賴昌星回去了，那賴昌星回去他直接牽扯到三個中央政治局常委：最深的交往就是賈慶林，現在可以看到賈慶林這張牌恐怕是已經要投降了，賀國強看來還沒有完全投降，習近平現在是低調、不吭聲。」
《博訊網》披露，賈慶林已經放棄了下屆常委的自己接班人提名，並放棄自己所分管的三到四位省委書記和若干中央委員及省長、部長的提名權力。
北戴河會議期間，溫州動車慘劇引發中國的民怨沸騰，主管鐵道部的張德江和中央政法委書記周永康，被認定是下令毀屍滅跡的責任人；中宣部長劉雲山和主管中宣部的李長春掩蓋真相，這成了胡錦濤打擊江派的又一把柄。
金鐘(香港《開放》雜誌主編)：「現在不管是江派還是胡派、是太子黨還是團派上臺執政，他們都還是共產黨的一黨專政，他們積纍下來的踐踏人權方面的很多舊案，他們都還沒有償清，當然也包括法輪功的這個大冤案在裡面。」
美國哥倫比亞大學政治學博士李天笑指出，胡溫在這一輪交易中明顯佔上風，胡溫握有江澤民死定和賴昌星遭遣返這兩張制勝王牌，江系人馬驚慌失措，紛紛另尋新主。而中共政權也到了隨時都會崩潰的「最危險的時刻」。
新唐人記者常春、李元翰、朱娣採訪報導。
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CCP Factions』 Fights
Recently, when CCP』s (Chinese Communist Party) president
Hu Jintao was visiting Shenzhen, Guangzhou, etc.,
he showed support to Guangdong』s provincial CCP secretary
Wang Yang, a member of the “CCP Youth League faction.”
On August 16, CCP』s Vice Premier Li Keqiang, also
a member of the “league faction," made a visit to Hong Kong.
The media in Hong Kong and Taiwan commented that
Li’s visit signals his succession to the position of premier.
Experts point out the series of events taking place after
Jiang Zemin’s rumored death have hit his faction heavily.
On August 16, CCP』s Xinhua Agency reported Li Keqiang
has “inspected Hong Kong Special Administrative Region."
Hong Kong』s Apple Daily commented that the depiction
of Li』s visit as “an inspection"is considered exceptional.
BBC analyzed that Li』s unusual visit to Hong Kong
is designed to “increase his scores."
Some analysts believe that Li’s visit is
to enhance the prestige of the “league faction."
Hong Kong’s Open magazine published in 2010 an article,
entitled “Wang Qishan Pressures Li Keqiang with Power."
Wang Qishan, a CCP princeling handpicked by Jiang Zemin,
was considered a dark horse in the next premiership rivalry.
Willy Lam (Hong Kong』 political commentator): “Vice Premier
Li Keqiang』s visit to Hong Kong made CCP』s plans clearer.
If nothing unexpected takes place, Li should succeed
as a Premier after the (CCP』s) 18th congress."
Taiwan』 Central News Agency quoted sources on August 16,
saying that Li might have already been appointed a Premier,
because this would enable him to visit Hong Kong.
Thus there is no need for his position to be established
with his Hong Kong visit, as speculated by the outside world.
Hong Kong’s Trend magazine cited in 2010 reliable sources
from top leaders in Beijing, saying that Li had withdrawn
from the competition for CCP』s Secretary General position,
and he would become the next Premier.
Wang Yang became the No. 2 Secretary General candidate
recommended by the “league faction."
From August 11 to 15, Hu Jintao attended
the Universiade Games in Shenzhen.
Later he visited Shenzhen and Guangzhou,
accompanied by Wang Yang in high profile.
Willy Lam: “Most people consider Wang Yang a key person
of the so-called “CCP Youth League faction."
This year President Hu came to Guangdong three times,
supporting Wang Yang to enter the Standing Committee."
As per Radio France Internationale, Lam said that in addition
to Wang Yang, Minister Li Yuanchao from the “league faction"
would also become a Politburo Standing Committee member
at the CCP』s 18th congress.
Bo Xilai, the CCP Secretary of Chongqing and a member
of Jiang Zemin』s faction, seems to be getting “bearish."
Zhu Jianguo (Shenzhen-based independent writer):
“Judging from Hu Jintao』s visits,
CCP top officials』 Beidaihe meeting
has set the future major policies.
Otherwise, Hu wouldn』t leave Beijing to go to the provinces
to arrange the promotions of Wang Yang and Li Keqiang."
Bo Xilai started the “red song singing" campaign,
in an attempt to enter Zhongnanhai.
However, he is getting the cold shoulder from Hu Jintao.
After Bo became in charge of Chongqing in the end of 2007,
out of the nine Politburo Standing Committee members,
only Hu Jintao hasn』t come to Chongqing to inspect.
After the 90th anniversary of the CCP,
rumors of Jiang Zemin』s death started to spread.
Yuan Hua smuggling case』s principal culprit Lai Changxing
was extradited back to China,
Wenzhou high-speed train tragedy took place
and a PX chemical plant in Dalian leaked.
All these caused great shakes in the CCP』s top leadership.
Wu Fan (Editor-in-Chief, China Affairs magazine):
“Lai Changxing was repatriated during Beidaihe』s meeting.
Lai is linked to three Politburo Standing Committee members,
including Jia Qinglin, He Guoqiang and Xi Jinping.
Jia has probably surrendered (to the “league faction");
He has almost surrendered; and Xi is now very silent."
Boxun online revealed, Jia Qinglin had surrendered power
to nominate his successor on the next Standing Committee,
as well as other nomination power regarding
several provincial secretary and governor positions.
During the Beidaihe meeting, Wenzhou train crash caused
the Chinese people』s great resentment towards authorities.
Railways Minister Zhang Dejiang and Central Political and
Law Commission secretary Zhou Yongkang were identified
as the people who ordered to destroy the train wreckages
to obliterate evidences.
Central Propaganda Department head Liu Yunshan and
director Li Changchun covered up the truth about the crash,
which became another lever used by Hu Jintao
to attack Jiang Zemin』s faction.
Jin Zhong (Editor-in-Chief, Hong Kong』s Open magazine):
“Whether Jiang』s gang or Hu』s faction,
the princeling party or the league faction, the ruling faction
still implements CCP』s one-party dictatorship.
They still haven』t paid for their decades-long human rights
abuses, including the great injustice towards Falun Dafa.”
Dr. Li Tianxiao of Columbia University pointed out that Hu
and Wen clearly gained the upper hand in the recent events.
Hu and Wen hold the trump cards
of Jiang』s death and Lai』s repatriation.
As a result, the panicking Jiang faction members
have to find a new master.
At the same time, the CCP regime has arrived to
“the most dangerous point," when it can collapse at any time.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Zhu Di
